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June 17, 2009
New Blog
This blog will no longer be updated. Please visit our new blogs at http://www.connpost.com/blogs.
Posted by Bustraan on 6:26 PM
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June 8, 2009
Bill Russell's New Book: Red and Me
(Revised)
Bill Russell, basketball giant, revolutionary, cultural icon, and apparent introvert, has always remained somewhat of a mystery. He reveals why in this book. Simply...he is a most private person, and could even be considered a loner. But that would only be partially correct.
In reading this book, Bill Russell reveals himself as he understands himself. He was honest about things (suspiciousness of white people born of blatant racism and less blatant prejudice) both positive and negative.
His very normal human reactions blended with the more idiosyncratic tendencies of a painfully private person appeared to form a stark contrast with the man who accomplished mind boggling success in his career.
I came to the conclusion that, in fact, it is those extreme idiosyncracies that drove Bill Russell to be so very unique. There is no other way to connect the two parts of the man.
Meet young Bill Russell....
"One of my innovations was the blocked shot, which revolutionized how defense could be played. People still ask me today, "Who taught you how to do that?" Well, nobody! I had never seen a blocked shot in a basketball game before I did it! I estimated that, in college, I averaged at least fifteen blocks a game. Often, I started fast breaks off those blocks, which revolutionized the way offense could be played."
Bill Russell's new book is called 'Red and Me'. It was co-authored with Alan Steinberg. Still, it reads close to how Bill Russell might actually talk.
It is a great read. Whether you grew up watching Russell and the Celtics make history or you are a student and lover of the game, you will enjoy it.
With Father's Day coming up, it's time for a special break from the current NBA. What a great Father's Day gift. (No. I'm not getting paid to endorse it.)
It is full of Celtic gold. But more than that, it gives you insight into two very interesting men and icons of the game. They are undoubtably the first two and biggest faces on the Celtics' own Mt. Rushmore. In this tribute to his deceased friend, Mr. Russell reveals how much the two of them were alike.
He takes you on an abbreviated journey (only 170 something pages) through his life up, right up to Red's death. It's sprinkled with some previously private thoughts and experiences. A man who hasn't liked to share very much with the public world does so here, in order to honor Red. Personal loyalty overcomes his natural inclinations to do so.
Over the next few days, I'll share with you a few snippets.
Bill begins with his own childhood in order to explain the values and mindset he grew up with and shaped him as a young man. His sense of dignity and unfailing determination to be treated like a man, not as a black man, came from his grandfather and far more from his father (who he called Mister Charlie). But I'll leave those stories for you to read in the book.
As amazing as it seems today, Red never saw Bill play before he drafted him. There weren't scouts and game films then. He went on the advice of two people, Bill Reinhart, (Red's former college coach) and a former Celtic player (Don Barksdale -who lived in Oakland). They both told Red that this was the guy who will win you championships. Red 'tracked' Bill's senior year at San Francisco.
Red saw within a week of Russell's arrival with the Celtics...
" that despite all the accepted wisdom about how a center should play, I did not play that way. I was going to be the dominant force in professional basketball, and we both knew that.
Red had been an offensive-minded coach. Most similar coaches would have tried to shape me to their offensive scheme, and force me to play the way previous centers played in that scheme.
Red didn't do that. Instead of clinging to a fixed strategy, as he learned more about my game he made adjustments in his approach to accommodate my strengths, in particular."
The dynamics between Red and Bill and Red and his players generally is enlightening....
It was funny, though, Red's public image was that he was so domineering, he made Vince Lombardi seem like a choirboy. But he wasn't like that.
When he talked to us about game strategies, he used to tell us in the huddle, "I don't know everything. I can't put this stuff on the floor for you. You guys have to do that. What do you think? It's important to know what you what you guys think because it's no good if it's a strategy you don't buy into."
To me, that was a novel approach. Back then, coaches never admitted that - it was always the players that didn't know something. Second, asking us what we think? Unheard of.
There is nugget after nugget as their stories unfold. Mr. Russell's desire to focus on the human aspects elevates the book to a higher level. Though it has game and locker room anecdotes, it goes far beyond that.
You walk away knowing both men better, and in ways I never expected. Did you know that Bill Russell never practiced?
Buy it. Read it.
Posted by Tom on 9:55 PM
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June 4, 2009
Re-Thinking Jamario Moon
I must first say this exercise in looking at potential free agents for the Celtics is pure conjecture to begin with.
Most of the players that I have mentioned in my previous article came from strictly from looking over the available free agents.
Other than Antonio McDyess, who we all know that Danny has liked for a while, the rest are merely for conversation sake. I have no indication at all that the Celtics are interested in any of them.
But after looking over the boards and seeing a dichotomy of opinion on one player in particular, Jamario Moon, I decided to contact someone who might know a bit more than the average fan.
After a discussion with a professional, veteran NBA source who has observed Moon a lot, I will reduce and reframe my expectations and understanding of Jamario Moon. I originally wrote this about Moon:
SF: Jamario Moon - An active, long defender. He needs more discipline and would get that with the Celtics. He always defended Pierce pretty well in Toronto, and shoots the three-ball. Not nearly as clever or tough as Posey but....Posey-light? Has the length Danny likes. I like him.
Due to the candid nature of the conversation, my source will, of course, remain anonymous.
What is your take on Jamario Moon?
He’s an athletic three, who does nothing particularly well, but can defend a little, hit a three point shot every now and then.
That is a lower opening appraisal than I hoped for. But that is why I was checking for more knowledgeable information than I had previously to make an opinion. I don't necessarily agree with everything he says, such as the following....
It’s sort of like what you guys had with Gerald Green a little and what the Heat have with Dorel Wright. He’s an athlete, but is he a basketball player?
I would say that Moon has already accomplished far more than either of those players. Granted he is older, too. But I get his drift. The feeling is that Moon relies on his athleticism but does not really play the whole game well.
To paraphrase.... Moon is a poor positional defender and counts on his speed and fantastic leaping ability to make up lost ground when he gets beat by his man. He will often catch up to his man at the rim, but that is too late, as the center has already had leave his own man to commit to help on Moon's player.
I told him that I saw Moon playing some solid defense on Paul Pierce when the Celtics played the Raptors. Response....
Yeah, he can guard Paul Pierce or if you put him on a Paul Pierce or he becomes the Celtics’ stopper, he’s also going to get a bunch of fouls.
Guys like that are guys that are fine if they’re coming off the bench, like Pietrus for Orlando, and you accept the fact that he might get three quick fouls because, you’re just not going to stop anyone one-on-one.
I think his defensive stopper-ism is a tad over rated. I think that’s who people really want him to be. But I think he’s not as positionally intelligent as like a Bruce Bowen….who has broken down individual defense to more like a science.
He went on to say that....
But probably half the people you talk to will tell you , “Don’t kid yourself. You can’t guard anyone one-on-one these days.”
Again, mostly true. But there are times when a rare few players do a pretty good job of defending one-on-one with the Pierces, Kobes and LeBrons of the league.
What if he came to a strong team like Boston?
If he is not going to be a starter, and he is going to be a 17 minutes a game guy…just like James Posey can guard 3/4s for example…..he can guard 2/3s. Just like James (Posey) can hit the corner three when you need it, you know, Jamario…not as high a percentage, he doesn’t have the big game experience…could hit three also.
But he’s not even a 6th man. He’s more like a 7th, 8th or 9th man. He’s not the guy that is going to come off the bench who will energize your guys either way. He’s not a big steals guy. He’s not a pure shot blocker defensively.
He’s a guy who’ll come off the bench and buy time for you.
In some ways that is all the team needs, if they can get him for short money. But it sounds like he would not be that good on defense on LeBron or Kobe. Would Kobe or Lebron eat him up?
They would eat him up, but what he would do is, he would keep Paul out of foul trouble. You could throw him on LeBron for 15 minutes a game and he would get some fouls. But he would make LeBron exert energy, which is what you want.
So there might be times when the Celtics can go small, let’s say when Cleveland goes small, where you could have him and Pierce on the court at the same time, and use Jamario against LeBron.
If he gets fouls, so what, at least Paul’s not getting the fouls, and you still have Paul’s offense out there. That’s what he is. He’s not the kind of guy you’re going to worry if he gets 2 quick fouls or 3 quick fouls. It doesn’t matter.
He’s not the kind of guy…the difference between him and Posey is that he’s not an end-of-game guy..... Even if the fouls aren’t bad, I think Doc would put Paul on him (LeBron) anyway, the way that Paul’s upgraded his defense…as long as Paul’s not in foul trouble and in danger of getting his 5th or 6th foul.
He didn't see teams being overly successful with Moon on the floor at crunch time. He went on to say that players that play defense like Moon drive positional defensive coaches crazy.
That right there gives me pause. If Tom Thibodeau comes back, and even if he doesn't, Doc Rivers would not allow a player to freelance or play undisciplined and 'catch up' defense out there. That is why the Cs have even gotten upset at Rondo for playing defense the very same way at times.
The one thing they are, Celtics might be as positional (on defense) as any team in the NBA.
That is true. But I might add that they are short on length and athleticism and that is missed quite a bit at times in games, as well.
What they need is an 'athlete' who knows the fundamentals of the game, too.
He says that you don't need to be an athlete to be a good defender and used Bruce Bowen as an example....
The question is whether his basketball IQ is up there. Certain guys understand tactically what to do. Their footwork is spectacular. They know when a player goes left, to play him to the left. Bruce is positioning and angles, and that’s what people don’t understand. They go for (the fact) that Bruce is not a good athlete at all. But he knows what to do.
He even used Brain Scalabrine as an exemple...
(Many) thought Mikki Moore was a great pick-up right? He is a 7 footer. He’s long. He’s better than Scalabrine. But at the end of year, Brian Scalabrine, who is not really atheltic, he still fit that defensive system better than Mikki Moore did.
Of course Trevor Ariza's name came up.....
He (Moon) is an athlete. But is he an athlete who can ever be transformed into something a little more? You know, Trevor Ariza’s come around so, obviously there is hope for everyone.
But for every Trevor Ariza who has turned his athleticism into a polished NBA player, there are 10 guys who just end up as journeymen their entire careers.
(Chuckling) Yeah, that is a good illustration. To be honest I always liked Ariza. I thought if you put him in the right situation…….
Exactly. And you put him in the triangle on offense and you get him positionally where he needs to be on defense and you can make something out of him. Maybe Jamario will find that.
So, my idea of Jamario Moon becoming a 'Posey-light' appears to be on the hopeful side. Yet, he could be a long shot as a Trevor Ariza type if he would acquire the discipline necessary to make that jump.
My source did not seem optimistic that would happen.
Bear in mind that even the smartest, most knowledgeable minds in the NBA will disagree on players and their potential. So I leave the door open that he may be wrong about Moon. Then again, he may not.
So I will defer. Based on that appraisal, Moon more likely appears to be a low cost pick up for deeper off the bench. In a pinch that will do, but that isn't really what the Celtics need right now.
Danny has a tough job this summer.
Posted by Tom on 9:17 PM
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May 31, 2009
Who Should the Celtics Try to Sign?
Candidates are many. Hope is high. Time to spin the wheel.
No one wants the Celtics to go into next year hackled the way they were this season more than Coach Doc Rivers.
The fact that a healthy Celtic team might have repeated is not a reason not to do their very best and spend a few pesos to bring in better depth and insurance. Owner Wyc Grousbeck said they would do just that.
So...what are the critical needs? All seem to agree that a back up big man, a solid swingman and a back up point guard are the three pieces needed to get the Green Machine rolling again.
There seems to be some question in Celtic Nation over which position is the prime need; big man or swingman.
With Leon Powe a big question mark and not due back until mid season at the earliest, Glen Davis up in the air, the failure of Patrick O'Bryant, and Mikki Moore, many feel that a strong, talented big man is the number one concern.
Others feel that Paul Pierce needs a solid back-up to allow him rest. The Celtics need someone other Pierce to effectively guard the top swingman like LeBron James and Kobe Bryant.
The need for a back up point is pretty much agreed to be third in terms of priority. In a worst case scenario, the Cs won with Eddie House as the back up. While not the best use of House, they might be able to roll with that again.
My first choices are:
PF/C: Antonio McDyess -
McDyess is a perfect fit. He may also be acquired cheaply, considering all the money he gave up in Denver in order to return to the Pistons. What an incredibly wrong move on Antonio's part that turned out to be. If he stayed in Denver, he is the type of never-say-die player that could have spurred the Nuggets possibly on to an upset. At any rate, he would have been with a team that went much farther.
For that reason, he is now said to be reconsidering his loyalty to Detroit. If he wants a chance at a championship next season, the Pistons aren't the answer. The Celtics could very well be and he could help make it so.
Antonio does seem to have an aversion to Danny Ainge, though. Ainge has tried numerous times in the past to sign McDyess, only to see him go elsewhere. And I'm sure Ainge made overtures last season as well. Still, this is the guy I want in a Celtic uniform.
My hope is that they could get him for less than the full MLE,and use the rest of that for a swingman. Would McDyess be had for the LLE? Hmm.....
PF/C: Rasheed Wallace (2nd choice)
Kevin Garnett's buddy is another great player to add. Rasheed has had motivation problems and doesn't always take the right shot. But like everyone else that we think comes here, the Celtic culture and Garnett's verbal whip will take care of any of those issues.
I think he would require the full MLE as he is making noises that he would retire unless he gets $7-8 million next season. He has that important 'big game' experience any team could use.
C: Rasho Nesterovic - He won a title with the Spurs. Blocks shots, shoots and passes well. Would he rejoin his former mate Kevin Garnett? Would he come for the LLE? He said that Europe is an option.
PF/C: Drew Gooden - well traveled solid rebounder with an inconsistent shot. Looking for an NBA team to call home.
C: Zaza Pachulia - great offensive rebounder, tough player, nice shot. Not a great defender.
C: Marcin Gortat - long and active. Looks good from what I've seen in the playoffs
C: Franscisco Elson - under rated role player with limited offense. Low cost option.
PF/C: Juwan Howard or Joe Smith. Very experienced players at the ends of their careers. Again - low cost options - Veteran mimimums or LLE at most.
PF: Brandon Bass - probably will get re-signed by Dallas. If not, he is an active body with some skill.
PF: Charlie Villanueva (RFA), talented offensive player who would need to pick it up defensively. I think he's very coachable and played better defensively in Milwaukee. Probably will get much better offers elsewhere.
PF: Chris Wilcox - Mr. Inconsistency. Motivation seems to be his problem. He is quite talented...but lazy.
Swing Position Choices
My true number one choice at the swing position is Trevor Ariza. Even before he could shoot the long ball, I've always liked this player. Now he's added the three point shot. It is his value as a very active defender and disrupter that makes him invaluable.
He made$3.1 mil this season. What is he worth? Depends on the team, but perhaps up to the MLE amount makes sense for some teams.
L.A. would be foolish to let him get away. Both Isaiah Thomas and Larry Brown made publicly disparaging remarks about him before trading him from New York. Then the Magic traded him to the Lakers for Maurice Evans who is with the Hawks now. Imagine if the Magic kept him?
He, apparently, is an unusual personality, and apparently does not like the Celtics. So I, apparently, have to root against him for a long while.
Surprisingly, there are a number of solid possible options as back up small forward and/or shooting guard. None are lock down defenders, but all choices are good defenders. Bogans and Wilkins have the best defensive reputations.
A Few Words About Grant Hill
He played (or should I say 'not played') for Doc Rivers in Orlando. He is versatile offensively, and could come cheaply (LLE). The problem is that he will be 37 by the time the season starts. He hasn't been asked to play great defense, and I don't know if he can anymore. Though I am enamored of his career, recent healthfulness (82 games) and productivity, I will let Danny decide that one, and move on to other options.
The first four all have something positive to offer but are not without flaws either. I'll slightly prioritize them anyway. Here they are:
SF: Jamario Moon - An active, long defender. He needs more discipline and would get that with the Celtics. He always defended Pierce pretty well in Toronto, and shoots the three-ball. Not nearly as clever or tough as Posey but....Posey-light? Has the length Danny likes. I like him.
SF: Matt Barnes (2nd choice)- defended Dirk well in the series that the Warriors upset the Mavericks a few years ago. Decent role player, tenacious defender when asked to be, though I'm not sure he would do as well against the likes of Kobe or LeBron. Inconsistent offensively.
SG/SF: Damien Wilkins (ETO) -
can opt out of a $3.3 mil. salary with OKC Thunder this season.
Call this one a long shot but I like him. His minutes went down (15 min.) on a bad team and doesn't look like they will increase with OKC this year. Would he take less (LLE) to play nearly the same amount of time and for a chance at a title with the Celtics? Played a solid role with Ray Allen on Seattle's playoff team.
At 6' 6" Damien is a very good defender and can hit the three. Not a good shooter otherwise.
SG: Keith Bogans - good relief for Pierce or Ray Allen. Solid defender, and offensive game has improved a bit over the years. More of a shooting (sic) guard, but could guard some SFs in limited minutes.
SG: Quinton Ross - decent defender with under rated offensive ability. Questionable if he can defend Bryant or James, though.
SF: Marquis Daniels - Pacers have team option at $7.3 mil. Willl they use it? If not, would he come to the Celtics for much less? Probably not. A good role player, who I believe would fit in with the Celtics.
Point Guards
Good back up point guards are surprisingly sparse. Any of these four would do.
C.J. Watson is the youngster with upside. I don't know how well he could defend. He can do what House or Marbury can do defensively, right? He will probably get the qualifying offer of $1 mil. from Golden State. Is he worth more? I haven't seen enough to know. But he may be worth a chance.
You think he is too young? Remember, Doc was giving Gabe Pruitt a chance to earn the back up role.
PG: C.J. Watson
PG: Brevin Knight
PG: Tyronn Lue
PG: Kevin Ollie
Any comments or ideas of your own? Let me know.
I don't think that most of my choices are surprises. Perhaps you disagree with the order of my choices. Feel free to add your thoughts and make your case. Is there someone I missed?
Posted by Tom on 11:07 PM
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May 26, 2009
Signing Glen Davis -part two
Glen Davis is good for the NBA. Of that, I am certain.
As a basketball fan, NBA fan, and Celtic fan, I am also a fan of Davis' mold breaking potential and the success he has shown thus far. (Remember, we bloggers are allowed to be fans openly.)
Glen has also been good for the Boston Celtics. It is Glen's non-conforming body type versus his skill set that muddies the waters in defining or predicting what that mold breaking potential actually is.
There are a number of ingredients that go into the pot when boiling down a nice savory reduction of Glen Davis. If you get the (not so) subtle food allusion, you get one of the concerns. Glen has had struggles with food (i.e. weight).
While some may point to other large big men of the past NBA, I haven't really heard of a good approximation to Glen Davis in NBA history. The rounder, heavier players that I can think of just didn't have Glen's mind set, agility and abilities. Those that do are substantially leaner body types.
No doubt this is not your father's NBA. Body management and conditioning has reached heights or extremes never before seen. Dwight Howard, Alonzo Mourning, Corey Maggette and others like them define the new body protypes. Some people simply have a problem with Davis' weight and shape. With a few caveats, I am not one of them.
By the way, don't suggest that Glen is fat. He will be sure to take immediate issue with that thought, as was discovered by a writer or two along the way.
There are a number of factors that go into the equation of understanding who Glen Davis is, and predicting what he will be as an NBA player. Unlike a growing segment of the NBA population, Davis does not have 'Plastic Man long' arms, nor Spiderman-like leaping ability.
That he is about 2 inches shorter than his same position counterparts is the starting point for criticism or concern. On the flip side, his girth works to his advantage in many cases, but not all. His unconventional body type, normal length arms, and lack of great leaping ability seems to have been behind the wide range of opinion among experts and fans alike, regarding our well rounded big man.
All hail Danny Ainge, the NBA's reigning nonconformist. It's true that Danny could have taken Marc Gasol, Dominic McGuire, or Ramon Sessions instead of Davis in that draft. They are the three players taken after Davis in the same draft that are NBA successful. Reality check: none of those players were projected as having more solid chances of becoming legit NBA players at that time.
But on to the issues in discussing Glen Davis:
The Bad
1) The Celtics are in luxury tax hell.
Anything they pay him will be doubled in penalties. But bear in mind that is also true for any other signings they may make. They must decide how much they are willing to pay to not go through another season depending on marginal players to support the starting five.
Doc Rivers has already put his vote in on that subject
2) Glen Davis is not a shot blocker, and rebounding has not been his forte.
As his value offensively might be more readily projected, he has certain match up problems on the other end of the floor. While generally capable and sometimes quite good defensively, he is not an intimidating post defender. At this point, quicker power forwards with an outside shot can get by him a bit more frequently than is desirable.
3) Leon Powe's injury leaves the Celtics very shorthanded at the power forward position, unless they sign Davis.
Mikki Moore is out and Brain Scalabrine is not the long term answer. Even if they have other players in mind for the position, there is no certainty that they will sign anyone they most desire. They have to make a decision on Davis before then. After this past season, it would be risky indeed to let Davis walk scot free without a replacement.
The Good
1) Roster Spot
The unique factor here is that they can re-sign Glen without using up any other signing options. Though it would be double his immediate salary cost, he is in effect a 'freebie' roster-wise. They use up no additional signing "tools" (MLE, LLE, Vet. Min.).
The decision making process will be very similar to that behind letting James Posey go. In this case, Davis is younger with more growth to come. The Celtics drafted him and put two years of grooming and development into Davis. Will the Celtics let another valuable piece leave with zero return again?
Unless the Celtic owners have decided this season taught them something and they loosen their belts, similar to Posey, they will have set a limit that they will pay for him and no more.
2) Glen is young and his game is still developing.
Some say that he is close to "plateau-ing". I say that is probably not true. There are aspects of his game and skill set that aren't close to being utilized to their best yet. Offensively, Glen can actually become more of a facilitator in an offense, and can develop moves around and toward the hoop to complement his burgeoning outside shot.
3) Glen has already done what many of his constant detractors say he would never do, develop a reliable jump shot.
He has already started to reach a level of production offensively that I thought would take another year or so. On the right team, as a starter, Glen Davis is a 15-18 point scorer.
4) Glen can become a much better rebounder. Simply by concentrating on it more.
He has already shown that he is a pretty good offensive rebounder when he wants to be. More alertness of where the opposing rebounders are and desire to improve that part of his game will bring success.
5) Glen can improve even more than he did this season defensively. There are limitations to his defensive abilities, but he can get better fundamentally. He is a wide and strong body with good footwork. His quick hands were also a surprise.
6) As a role player off the bench, he can play with higher energy for shorter minutes and without as much concern about fouls, thereby being even more productive. At times, as a starter in the playoffs, it seemed like Glen was pacing himself out there, knowing that he had to play big minutes.
The Uncertain
1) What Glen himself wants to do.
He will gets offers from other teams. I'll probably look at what teams may be most able to make an offer soon. Career-wise, Glen may actually be better off moving to a situation where he has a chance to use more of his skills and get a chance to start.
With Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins, Glen will always be a back-up forward and center. As long as the Celtics have the Big Three and Rondo, there will be little money left over for the rest of the roster.
2) If the Celtics will match.
This is still in their hands. If Davis should get a 3 year offer for $5 mil, that means $10 mil per year to the Celtics for next season. If they don't re-sign Ray Allen in two years, Davis' cost could possibly be just the face value without further tax implications.
3) What the Celtics will do with Ray Allen after next season.
The Celtics are not necessarily in luxury tax penalty in 2011 at this point, even with re-signing Rondo.
That is year 4 of the Pierce/Garnett Era. Barring critical injuries, all efforts will likely be made to remain contenders. Whether Ray Allen is extended will make a difference in what it will actually cost to sign Glen.
4) How Glen will manage his weight with a long term contract.
The last thing Glen Davis told me as the season ended was that his priority this summer was to continue to work on his body. He said that he wants to (one day) become an all star. Now he has an invite for the U.S. Team that will take up a large portion of the summer.
I understand the concerns of those worry about that issue. There have been more than a few individuals who 'took the money and ran' (or didn't run) after getting large NBA contracts.
But you don't have to have weight issues to do that (see Mark Blount, Jerome James) While a person's reaction to coming into large sum of money is always hard to gauge, when focused, Davis has played with heart and passion in the past. I see no reason why that would change.
What Makes Sense to Me
A three year deal - by the Celtics or another team. Anything less and Glen might as well take the qualifying offer and go for big money next season. Anything more and both sides have a greater chance in being disappointed long term.
Players like Rasual Butler and Amir Johnson get $10 mil. over three years. At the other end, Andres Nocioni gets get $8 mil. per. Drew Gooden got $5.6 mil., Franscisco Garcia got a 5 year deal starting at $5.8 mil.. Maybe the most relevent is undersized power forward Ryan Gomes who is getting $3.8 mil next season. Zaza Pachulia is coming off $4 mil.
What is a Reasonable Offer?
I suggest that an offer coming in for Glen at between $3.5 mil. and $4.5 mil to start would be reasonable. 3 years at $12-13 million secures Davis' future. It is possible that he is offered up to the $5.6 ar so maximum, more based on his potential as a starter and his playoff production including hitting some clutch shots. The last second game winner against Orlando probably added dollars to his offers right there.
At this point, unless the Celtics know they have a solid inside track on someone like McDyess or Rasheed Wallace, I would match all offers of three years or less, even at max. If they want to win the championship with the Big Three, they must put solid role players around them.
Davis has his deficiencies, but most of those correctable. Even more than Posey's would have been, his contract is tradeable later if things change.
The tough economy and size of the Big Three's contracts makes it a much more difficult decision. They will need a back-up point guard, swing man, and back up center as well. If rookie Bill Walker can become Pierce's back up, the other two positions are more easily financed with the MLE, LLE, or veteran minimums.
The Celtics urgency to win now with three aging stars puts pressure on the team to spend in a luxury tax situation. My guess is, except for a 4-5 year maximum ($20-25 million) offer for Davis, that they will match and keep Glen.
Posted by Tom on 12:11 PM
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May 19, 2009
Boston Celtics' Glen Davis Free Agency Options (Part one)
(Revised 5/20)
This off season Celtic forward Glen Davis will sign a new contract, possibly with a new team.
Glen Davis’ greatly improved play as the year wore on, and his solid and consistent performance throughout the playoffs makes this a question of interest for Celtic Nation.
But the Celtics are over the luxury tax threshold. Barring unforeseen moves to get below the tax threshold, signing Glen could cost the Celtics plenty. A $5 million dollar contract will cost them $10 million total with the tax.
What are the chances Glen will stay with the Celtics?
Because of the Gilbert Arenas Rule, the Celtics will get final say on whether they want to match any offers to Davis or not. After two years of grooming, the Celtics will see what offers Glen gets and must decide if it is worth it to keep Glen.
They can also consider sign-and-trade scenarios (less likely) with Glen. He would fall under Base Year Compensation rules for 6 months if he is signed for more than 20% of his last salary. He will definitely sign for more than that, meaning that only half of his new salary would count in a trade.
Let me first say that much, but not all, of the following information was authenticated by Boston Celtic management.
Here we go:
Because Glen Davis falls under two rules, the Early Bird Exception and the Gilbert Arenas Rule, here are the likely options for Glen.
1) The Celtics can tender a qualifying offer to Glen by June 30, and wait to match any counter offers from new teams. After the qualifying offer to retain matching rights, under the Early Bird Exception, they also offer either 175% of his last salary or the average player salary (MLE value), approximately $5.585 million - which ever is greater. That means the MLE amount, though it is not an MLE offer. It is an Early Bird Exception offer.
2) Any new offers from new teams must be for no more than the MLE and can be for up to 5 years in length. So he might also get an offer for less than the MLE but, let’s say for 3, 4, or 5 years.
a) The first two years may not be more than the MLE amount. The third through fifth years can be more if the new team is under the cap and deems Glen worthy of such an offer. Neither scenario seems likely so…
b) Glen may receive an offer from any new team for 1-5 years for up to $5.585 million per year (with 8% yearly raises allowed). That a new team would tender a three year contract (or more) seems quite possible.
At that point…
The Celtics can make a financially limited multi year offer (MLE plus 10% yearly raises only) or stay with an MLE valued single year qualifying offer.
The significance is that a single year offer moves Glen to full Bird Rights next year, allowing the Celtics to make an unrestricted multi year offer (up to player max) after that year.
Both Glen and the Celtics have to determine what Glen's long term value is and what is in their own best interests.
To summarize:
1) To retain their rights to Davis, Glen will get a qualifying offer (125% of previous salary) from the Celtics by June 30.
2) New teams can offer up to the average player salary (MLE amount) for up to 5 years, limited to 8% raises annually.
3) The Celtics can make their own multi year offer up to 5 years starting at $5.585 mil., but limited to 10% raises annually.
If Glen accepts a one year offer from the Celtics:
1) He qualifies for full Bird Rights the next season and no salary limits (except player max) for any new multi year contract.
He would only do this if he thinks his value will escalate substantially next year. With a fully recovered Kevin Garnet expected to return, his role will be cut back from starting to role player. It is more likely that Glen accepts some sort of multi year deal this season to gain much sought financial security that a multi year deal would guarantee him.
I’ll cover Glen’s performance this season and a projected value in part two.
Posted by Tom on 1:09 PM
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May 18, 2009
Cs' Season Ceases: Celtics Go Down Quietly
"Life guarantees a chance...not a fair shake."
That the Celtics are a lesser team without Kevin Garnett was never in doubt.
That they almost beat the Magic in this series anyway leaves me with conflicted thoughts that I may never sort completely out. Competing in my mind are the contrary ideas that the team over achieved and played poorly at the same time. But that's for another time.
Last night, they clearly did not over achieve nor play up to Celtic standard basketball.
The Celtics lost a rare game 7 on their own court, lost big, and surprisingly lost without much of a fight, 101-82.
According to Paul Pierce...
Tonight, I felt like we ran out of gas.
After seeing the series, but the last two games in particularly, the only conclusion that makes sense is just that. And maybe now, the Celtics will come clean on any hurts and injuries they have kept hidden for awhile.
The Magic defense is under rated, and the Magic, as a team, grew as the series progressed. Alternately, the Celtics grew more and more tired.
The Celtics shot progressively worse over the last three games, going .423, .416, and then a lethargic .392 at home in game seven. The most accurate (39.7%) three point shooting team in the NBA this season, they shot just 25% from the arc over the last three games.
The Orlando Magic broke a phenomenal, unmatched 32-0 Celtic record of winning series that they were up 3-2. The Celtics lost a game 7 for only the 4 time in 21 tries in their history as well.
One might wonder how the Celtics might have fared if they even had Leon Powe. It is possible that they would have moved on the face the Cavaliers. The series was that close. Those are 'what ifs' relegated to sports bars, college dorm rooms, and playground debates.
Magics' Well Played Night
The Magic had the Celtics wondering whether to sneeze or wind their wristwatch on the defensive end all night. When the Celtics defended the three point line or dribble drive, Dwight Howard got a dunk. When they defended the painted area, three point shooters were open. When they tried to hedge a bit on both, the Magic drove the middle and scored or kicked for an easy shot.
Doc Rivers...
I said all along that dribble penetration was the key to this series.
Dwight Howard had 12 points, but 16 rebounds, 5 blocks and a defensive presence and shot intimidation that cannot be overvalued. Offensively raw, Howard is a formidable defender.
Playing against Perkins...
Perkins is a tough player. I learned there are some things that I have to work on this summer.
Kendrick Perkins stature among his peers grew in this series. KP quietly played Howard, one of the top centers in the NBA, very, very well. He took away the easy shots and made him work from a range that was outside his current skill level - that is to say anywhere outside of 5 feet.
Perkins was the defensive anchor, but was often laid bare by his team mates on switches, as the Magic carved up the Celtics' defense.
Hedo Turkoglu played a superb game, leading all scorers with 25 points on a highly efficient 9 of 12 shooting, 4 of 5 from the three point line, with 12 assists, 5 rebounds, and a block.
Turkoglu had two specifically morale breaking threes. The first was to open the 4th after Rondo hit a three to end the third, getting the Celtics within 5 at 66-61. It stole momentum right back for the Magic. The other was with 4:20 left after the Celtics knocked down a 19 point deficit to 12. That erased any doubt about the ball game.
Rashard Lewis finished with a quiet 19 points in support. Mickael Pietrus had another back breaking night off the bench with 17 points on 6 of 7 shooting.
Rafer Alston played big with 15 points, including 3 three pointers and capable defense against Rondo. J.J. Redick turned into Ray Allen's shadow, while Courtney Lee did the same to Eddie House for most of the series. House scored just two points in almost 17 minutes tonight.
Ray finally broke loose for a team leading 23 points on 9 of 18 shooting and 3 of 6 from the three point line. But he generally had to work much too hard for his shots and no one else stepped up offensively for the Celtics.
This will not go down as one of Paul Pierce's great game sevens. Paul was slow defending all night, closed out shooters on the arc late, and generally looked like his off season started a few games ago.
Paul finished witn an uncharacteristic 16 points, on 4 of 13 shooting, with just 3 assists and 2 rebounds.
Rondo finished with 10 assists and 10 points, with 6 rebounds and 2 steals, but, save his big three point shot to end the third, was largely contained in this game by a guard he was outplaying early in the series, Rafer Alston. Maybe it is no coincidence that as Alston's play improved in the series, that Rondo's game was neutralized.
Glen Davis was a non factor, though scoring 13 points on 4 of 7 attempts.
The lack of a Celtic bench and poor defense was their undoing for most of the series. but the Celtic offense was contained much better than I ever thought it would be, as they scored just 75 and 81 points in their last two games.
It could be said that they died with their boots on, but if so, that death occured in the middle of the fourth quarter of game 6. To be fair, last night's game 7 was still in doubt until the Magic ran off 11 straight points to start the 4th quarter.
By that time, a team that was running on fumes came to a complete stop, sputtered to life to close within 12, then died on the floor.
There were no more magical moments for the Celtics. The magic belonged to the Magic.
Posted by Tom on 12:30 AM
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May 17, 2009
Last Team Standing: Celtics/Magic Game 7
One advances to fight King James and his juggernaut, one packs for the off season.
"Any ordinary journalist would have been able to put the whole thing in a three word caption." - William Saroyan
Unfortunately, I'm not that good.
But beyond Mr. Saroyan, I'll get some help from another of America's street intellectuals, Yogi Berra....
"It ain't over 'til it's over."
It is over tonight, somewhere around 10:45. Home court, loyalty, experience and sentiment make the Celtics the favorites. Orlando youth, growth, and Celtic fatigued make tonight's game an unsure thing.
They will tell you there is no fatigue in a 7th game. I hope they are right.
Looking more and more like the 1986-87 Celtics when Larry Bird averaged 44 minutes, Dennis Johnson 42, McHale 39.4, and Danny Ainge 38 minutes, these 'Iron Man' Celtics have gotten this far with little help from the bench. It would be great if the Celtics starters can start strong, get a lead, and then some rest for the 4th quarter.
Larry was 30 in that series. Pierce is 31 and averaging 43.8 minutes.
Acording to Bill Doyle of the Worcester Telegram, the two days off were great for two Paul Pierce injuries....
Pierce said the extra day of rest helped him recover from a sprained wrist and sore lower back.
Doc Rivers appreciated the two day rest to have a much needed practice to address slippage(Doyle again)....
Rivers was thrilled to be able to practice for the first time in quite a while yesterday.
“When you don’t practice,” Rivers said, “you have slippage, and we’ve had a ton of slippage.”
Indeed they have. They usually come out stronger, more focused, after a practice day.
I hope they shake Ray Allen out of his shooting slump. Ray scores just 11.5 points a game. His shooting has fallen into the cellar. He has made just 2 of his last 22 three pointers, and is shooting just 32% overall. This, after leading the league for much of year in 2 point percentage (54%) and averaging 41% from the three point line.
Yogi again...."I ain't in no slump... I just ain't hitting."
Maybe Ray feels the same way. But he better start hitting, if the Celtics want advance. Ray was magnificent against the Bulls (47% from the arc). This is two straight years of an early shooting drought for Ray, but this year it is far more critical without Garnett there to pick up the slack.
The keys to this game? Chuck Daly, just before he died about a week ago, told Dallas Coach Rick Carlisle to... 'Wipe everything off the board. It's all about attitude.' (Eddie Sefko, Dallas Morning Star)
For both teams it is that. For the Celtics it also fatigue.
The Celtics have one of the best starting fives in the league, even now.
A solid game from Glen Davis, the weakest link in that unit, is in order. Just hit your shots, pass when it's not there, play solid defense and hit the boards will be enough.
A good performance from a reserve would be a breath of fresh air. Stephon Marbury, Brian Scalabrine, Eddie House. That is it. I doubt anyone else will see the light of day in a game 7.
Rajon Rondo must lead the aggression. Paul Pierce must be right there with him. The team needs a big game from a rested Paul. Kendrick Perkins must continue to do what he has been doing the whole series - making life hard for Dwight Howard.
In may ways, this imperfect Celtic team in an imperfect post season has provided more thrills than I ever tought possible.
And mybe that is the way it should be.
"If the world were perfect, it wouldn't be." -- Yogi
To heck with perfection. Somehow the NBA Champions are once again the underdogs in a repeat title run.
Let's see how far their heart can take them.
Posted by Tom on 11:07 AM
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May 16, 2009
CelticsStuffLive Game 6 Postgame Podcap w/Yours Truly
I don't know if I'll be asked back after not joining the 'Davis is a Bad Baby' party, but Jon Duke, Justin Poulin and myself breakdown the disappointing performance of the Celtics.
Take a listen to a summary of the good, bad and ugly from Game 6.
An assessment of Dwight Howard (is he really that good?), a scary man in a orange shirt, Big Baby's Terrible, Horrible No Good Night, Rajon Rondo's turnovers, Kendrick Perkins, Mikael Pietrus, and much more.
laughs, tears and conflict for all. Call it......
The Celtic/Magic Game 6 Tapes
Posted by Tom on 7:59 PM
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May 15, 2009
Celtics Miss Opportunity to Close: Lose 83-75
In a game neither team seemed to want, the Celtics missed numerous opportunities to forge a big lead and close out the Orlando Magic. I guess that would be just too easy for this team.
The Magic did all they could to cooperate by missing numerous open shots and shooting just .366% for the night, including 6 for 26 from the three point line. The Celtics said, okay, then we'll turn the ball over 19 times, and shoot 3 for 18 from the three point line.
Winning three in a row? That's just not us.
The important differences in the game were turnovers, better defense by the Magic, and a foul shooting disparity of 31-13 attempts in favor of the Magic.
A rough game shooting by Ray, Paul, and Glen put pressure on Kendrick Perkins and Rajon Rondo to fill in the missing offense. They did their best, but it wasn't enough. Perkins finished with 15 points on 7 of 11 shooting, 10 rebounds, and 3 blocks.
Brian Scalabrine shot well (7 points on 3 of 7 shooting) and made the team's only other three point shot. Rashard Lewis did abuse him a bit in the post.
Though not textbook efficient, Rajon Rondo did all that he could to put the Celtics on his back with playoff level energy. He had all of the team's three steals in the first half, and finished with an amazing playoff career high16 rebounds. He also led the Celtics in scoring with 19 points on 8 of 19 shooting.
For a long while Rondo was the team's only outside threat with multiple jumpers, including (blink blink) two three pointers. He had missed his last 12 attempts from the arc and was shooting just 21% for the playoffs from downtown.
Ray Allen just could not get untracked, going 0-7 for from downtown and 2 for 11 for the game. Generally well defended, he also missed the more open opportunities he had. Shades of year's playoffs, Ray is in another major long distance slump . He is 2 for his last 22 attempts from the three point arc.
Perkins (5), Rondo (5) and Ray (4) had 14 of the Celtics' 19 turnovers.
Eddie House finished with just 6 points, but did not even get to attempt his bread and butter shot. The Magic have defensed him well of late, largely with Courtney Lee.
In a reversal from the previous game, the Celtics and Magic played even for three quarters and the Celtics fell apart in the fourth.
Fourth Quarter Meltdown
The Green Machine sputtered to just 13 points, on 6 for 18 shooting (33%), had 5 turnovers, had a single assist, and were blocked twice. The Magic scored just 22 points on 6 of 27 shooting but 14 free throw attempts in that quarter alone (more than the Celtics had for the game), making 8 of them.
Dwight Howard had a big game numbers wise as we might have expected. But it was his defensive presence that was far more important, His output was a gaudy 17 rebounds and 22 points after three periods, but his team was losing by one to the Celtics 62-61.
Equal Futility
The Celtics, being held to 26 points in the paint on a night when they couldn't hit from the outside, yet managed to maintained a slim lead until late, spoke to the equal futility of their opponent.
The score would indicate that defense ruled. That would be a half truth. Though the shooting percentages suggest otherwise, Orlando's defense was better overall. The highly vocal center of attention after the last loss, Dwight Howard, was far more important defensively than offensively. Dwight blocked three shots, changed many more, and deterred yet others from even trying.
If anything, this series and Kendrick Perkin's fine play is exposing Howard's offensive shortcomings. Dwight got his touches, but does not have the refined moves to really exploit his strength and athletic abilities. Defensively, he can strike fear into even the best players. The Celtics missed a number of lay ups by just worrying about where he was.
Rashard Lewis supported with 20 points and 9 rebounds, though he also was unable to hit from the arc (0-4).
The Celtics wasted solid performances by Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins and let this one slip away due to tough shooting by Ray Allen, a bad game by Glen Davis, and a tough shooting night by Pierce.
Glen Davis, the hero of the last two games was in foul trouble all night and seemed to be able to do very little right.
Paul almost revived his own moribund shooting performance to save the Celtics' day with 6 straight points on three straight shots in the fourth. He put the Celtics back in the lead at 73-72 after being down by at 72-67.
In fact, the Magic weren't able to grab their first lead until 8:38 left in the game on a Rashard Lewis jump shot. The Celtics led or were tied from the opening bell. But it wasn't for lack of chances. Neither team shot well, though Orlando shot extremely poorly.
Much of it was their own fault. The Celtics left many open shooters that just did not knock down the shot. The Magic were begging to be put out of their misery. The Celtics decided not to cooperate.
If there is a team that can't stand success, it is this season's Celtics. I must make the prerequisite manadatory statement that I love this team and what they are doing with a depleted roster and often struggling bench.
Their heart is without question. Their game to game performances are another thing altogether. With less help from the reseves than hoped for, playing all those minutes does have some effect whether they want to admit it or not.
Game 7 is Sunday in Boston.
Posted by Tom on 12:33 AM
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