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March 27, 2008
Who is the clutchest Celtic?
82games.com has a 'Clutch Stats' page and seems to be keeping it updated fairly regularly.
I just looked at it and thought I would share some Celtic stats and observations from it.
First of all, I don't completely agree with its very premise - that basic scoring percentages in the final 5 minutes of a game with a team within 5 points of the lead (either ahead or behind) is an accurate way to define clutchness. But it's close enough to get a good idea of who performs well in a close scenario.
As with all statistics, a little 'modular' thinking is required. Every save in baseball is not equal. Neither is every assist in basketball. But they are in the record books. So why not a parameter for clutchness.
I won't debate the premise. But I will share where the Celtics came out.
Number one in points scored (on a 48 minute basis)? Ray Allen.
It justifies my thinking about Ray's clutchness for the Cs. He is the most prolific scorer on the team under the criteria. Ray is 52nd overall at 26.2 points. Kevin Garnett is the next Celtic at 21.1, followed by Paul Pierce at 20.2. Overall, not surprising at all.
Because each of these stars have taken turns trying to win at crunch time, none of the three has dominated the scoring, as they might have, if still starring on other teams. But Ray is slightly ahead, as I thought he might be. Ray has had a knack for coming up big at the ends of games.
Lebron James is hands down number one in the league at 60.7 points (per 48) in crunch time. Kobe is number two at 53.5. Neither one surprises for reasons obvious even to a blind man on Mars.
But here is a surprise...
Guess who is a clutch Celtic foul shooter?
One Mister Rajon Rondo. He is shooting 87% from the foul line in these circumstances. While he hasn't taken a lot, he has made most of those he was asked to. 87% would stand with almost anyone. Johnny Rondo has nerves of steel, and rises to the occasion, it seems.
James Posey has shown to be a clutch foul shooter all year and leads the team is FT accuracy at 88%. While neither Rondo nor Posey take a lot, they have been more than good when they did.
Paul Pierce has quietly upped his foul shooting this season, including crunch time. He is 3rd on the team at 83% in those moments. He seems more focused, and his form even seems more of a crouch this season. He had a recent streak of foul shooting in the low 90s. He once said this season, that he wasn't sure people noticed that he had improved in this category. Paul, they will now know.
Ray Allen is surprisingly 4th with a pedestrian 78%. Ray is 4th in the league overall (.907), but not so much in the last 5 minutes. That was a little surprising. Far behind is Garnett at 68%.
But who hits their shots with the best accuracy in this situation?
The envelope please.....
"And the winner is....Rajon Rondo. It's an upset folks!"
That is correct. in 28 games that fit the parameters, Rondo leads the Celtics with a .444%. He is followed by Ray Allen at .431%. Garnett is next at .410%. Posey is far back at .267%, followed by Pierce at a paltry .250%. Who would have thunk it.
One thing - the low-high range for all the Celtic players mentioned here was from 28 to 34 games and from 81 minutes to 134 minutes, so each had a significant enough amount to time to make comparisons with.
The best clutch 3 point accuracy?
Ray Allen at 33%. Posey was next at .308%. Pierce was next at .182%. Needless to say, unless it was Ray Allen shooting, the Celtics haven't won too many games with 3 point bombing at the end. It also follows Doc's 'take it to the hoop' philosophy, and with those numbers, reinforces his thinking, doesn't it?
Ray Allen actually is 5th in the league with 3 point attempts at 12.1 (per 48 min.). No other Celtic comes close. Pierce is way down at 4.2 (per 48 min.), and who could blame him with a .182% success rate.
Pierce, not surprisingly, leads the Celtics in foul shot attempts at 11.4 in crunch time.
One more surprise stat.
Guess who leads the Celtics in rebounding in clutch situations at the end of games?
We have a multiple clutch stat winner, folks....
Rajon Rondo at 13.9. Yes, he even beats 7 foot board eater, Kevin Garnett, who gets 13.2 boards in those situations.
One final thought - the only Celtic with a positive plus/minus was James Posey at +9. Every other Celtic is a strong minus. That seems to mean that the other teams are uniformly outscoring the Celtics in those situations. With only 15 losses, that would also suggest that teams were mostly closing in on a Celtic lead.
So young and 'never nervous' Rajon Rondo is the top rebounder, top FG%, and 2nd in FT% for each of these stats. While I'm not sure he is who I want taking the last shot or shooting the game winning foul shots for us, when he has been asked to do so, he has responded with great success. He has shown a knack for making big plays all year. Clutch time is no exception. In fact, he has excelled in such moments.
You can take your pick who you want taking the shot in the last few minutes with the game on the line, but for me -
if it's a three pointer - give me Ray.
if it is a drive to get fouled - give me Pierce. He mostly makes those clutch FTs now.
If it is a mid range or drive to score - give me Garnett.
Oh yeah, if you want the rebound - put Rondo in there. He has come up with big rebounds so often, you almost expect him to find his way to the ball against anyone. Remember that rebound he slid in front of Dirk for? He has an uncanny knack for rebounding.
Some surprising numbers, some not so surprising. The plus-minus numbers would indicate that the Cs need a little work in those close, end of game situations. but with a 56-15 record, I guess there isn't too much to be concerned about.
And Rondo is quietly answering all critics with his play as he hones his craft.
Posted by Tom on March 27, 2008 9:39 PM
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Comments
Tom,
Nice analysis of the numbers. Your first paragraph sums up the problem I have with "clutchness" stats. Everyone thinks they know in their heads what "clutch" is, but put any two of those people in a room, and they could not come up with a concrete, objective definition of "clutch". It's simply too subjective of a concept to measure objectively. IMHO.
Posted by: ZekeMowattFan at March 28, 2008 9:52 AM
1.Bird
2. Havlicek
3.DJ
Posted by: Jens Fog at March 28, 2008 2:10 PM
Jens Fog - lol
No kidding.
Are they coming back? Doc's been into old guys lately.
Zeke,
I think you could do it with a high degree of meaning. But it would require parameters that could be amended by local official scorers - so long as they aren't 'homers' - you know like the ones for baseball.
I think most people know a clutch shot when they see it. But it isn't always under the same circumstances. That is what makes a cookie cutter rule open to debate.
Viva le sports arguments!
Both comments are appreciated.
T
Posted by: Tom Halzack at March 28, 2008 4:10 PM
