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September 29, 2008
NBA 2008-9 preview: Atlantic Division
Atlantic Division
Competition improves within the division, but none can keep up with Boston
Boston Celtics
prediction: 58–24 (LY=66-16)
2007-8 shot selection
24% 3 point shots .381 (5th)
40% mid range shots .417 (5th)
34% inside shots .613 (10th)
I say the experience counts and the hunger is still there. After all, they have Kevin Garnett.
I’ll have an article soon with their killer stats. Just incredible. Remarkably balanced.
With no solid veterans in the off season pick-ups, question marks abound with the added players.
People saw what these three stars do for their team mates’ games over the course of a season. After a 66 win season, no one will question their age this year, will they?
James Posey absolutely played a special role on this squad and will be missed.
But this team offered him a special situation with which to shine as well. It wasn’t the same in Miami for James as it was here.
Mercurial yet expressionless (okay, make that 'stoic') Rajon Rondo took a big step forward. Work on jump shot. Work on foul shot.
Kendick’s shoulder is still healing. Center back-up options are Patrick O’Bryant, Kevin Garnett, and Leon Powe.
Who steps up this season? Tony Allen has the inside track to break out. Leon Powe and Glen Davis both should step forward. Rookies JR Giddens (SG) and Bill Walker (SF) have the P word emblazoned on their foreheads. It looks like Darius Miles will get his chance. Portland says – We _____ Danny blankingAinge!
Remember…the Celtics are holding three aces. These three stars bought their tickets on the Lega-C Train. They all changed their summer routines to rest and celebrate. I wouldn’t make too much of it. They will be ready to go. Just don’t expect 30-3 out of the gate.
Doc says more rest for Paul and Ray. So watch for a chance to develop from guys like Tony Allen, Giddens, Miles and/or Walker
Philadelphia 76ers
Predicted: 50 –32 (LY=40-42)
2007-8 Shot Selection:
14% 3 point shots: .317 (30th)
48% mid range shots: .381 (24th)
37% inside shots: .615 (9th)
As you can see, they do not shoot well. But they run and run often. An almost non-existent arc attack, and not that good even at mid range, they are the Philly Rim Rockers. Dunkmasters extraordinaire, they were 2nd only to Denver.
I under rated them last season…by a lot. I won’t do that again.
All around good guy Elton Brand looks like a good fit for this team. As a top offensive rebounder, he joins a top offensive rebounding team. Their starting 5 of Andre Miller, Andre Iguodala, Thaddeus Young, Elton Brand and Samuel Dalembert are solid .
Louis Williams - the AI..or is it J.R.? Reggie Evans rebounds while Donyell Marshall might regain his outside touch. Theo Ratliff looks like he's lost his mojo. Marreese Speights...who knows?
Does Donyell Marshall and Kareem Rush help Louis Williams and Andre Iguodala to keep defenses honest? Yes, they help a bit. Young Thaddeus Young is a player to watch. Boston gets some new competition in the East....but they don't have enough to hang with the Green Machine.
Toronto Raptors
Prediction: 45-37 (LY=41-41)
2007-8 Team Shot Selection:
21% 3 point shots: .392 (2nd)
47% mid range shots: .417 (4th tie)
30% inside shots: .601 (13th)
The Raptors shoot lights out from the arc, and almost always off a pass (94% assisted – first in the league) but not as often as you might think (20th in pct. of total attempts). What is up with that Coach Mitchell? They pass well (5th in assists), and don’t turn the ball over (2nd best).
Rebounding needs to improve. The reigns of the team have been handed to Jose Calderon who recently played in the Euro tournament. With the play-offs last season, the Olympics, and now the Euros, will he tire?
They finished poorly after a strong start. The post game and rebounding (21st in differential) needs help. If Jermaine stays healthy, O’Neal helps Bosh quite a bit, though he must be convinced to play underneath to help this team the most.
Will Andrea Bargnani ever realize how tall he is and start to rebound and play closer to the hoop? If not, might he become a Hedo Turkoglu clone? Will Nathan Jawai help?
Will Sam Mitchell keep his promise to stop swearing this season? My guess is - not with Bargnani around. Euro point guard Roko Leni Ukic arrives stateside…oops…I mean in “Europe” in North America this season, too.
New York Knicks
Prediction: 29- 53 (LY=23-59)
2007-8 Team Shot Selection:
21% 3 point shots .337 (26th)
39% mid range .378 (25th)
38% inside shots .558 (26th)
Where do you start here? Let’s see.
The new coach (D’Antoni) doesn’t expect you to play defense. That has to help. The New Jersey Nets are worse. That helps, too.
There is a new starting PG (Duhon) but little else has changed. They hope that Stephon Marbury looks good so they can unload him. Look for trades this season as D’Antoni and Walsh try to rebuild this poorly assembled team. It is more than a one year project, lads and lassies.
Watching half court players Eddie Curry and Zach Randolph run should be interesting.
New Jersey Nets
Prediction: 23-59 (LY=34-48)
2007-8 Team Shot Selection:
22% 3 point shots .348 (24th)
40% mid range shots .395 (15th)
36% inside shots .553 (28th)
Vince Carter might sleep walk through this rebuilding season as they await the big free agency year 2 years from now.
Their bigs, Brook Lopez, Ryan Anderson, Josh Boone, and Sean Williams, have some promise but need teaching and game experience. Sean can be a defensive force. Boone showed improvement but can’t hit a foul shot.
Newly acquired Yi Jianlian is still in the 'definite potential' category. Similiar to Andre Bargnani, he must adjust to the NBA game and it's physicalness. A step forward would be in order as he will get to play in front of far more of his countrymen and within the New York City Asian cultural sphere.
Eduardo Najera, Keyon Dooling, and Trenton Hassell make up a core group of hustling defenders, but can’t all be on the floor at the same time none can shoot. Skill-wise, Devan Harris is who he is.
Should be a long year of teaching for Lawrence Frank. Will he be a good teacher?
(stats courtesy of 82games.com)
Play-off predictions coming up
Posted by Tom on September 29, 2008 11:19 PM
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