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September 14, 2008
NBA Predictions 2008-9: Northwest Division
Northwest Division - one team rising, one team sinking, one top team staying the same.
Utah 53-29 (LY= 54-28)
Jerry Sloan’s team has done little to change. 2nd in assists differential(+6.5), 2nd in FG% (49%), 3rd in rebound differential (3.1), 4th in points differential (+6.9) adds up to a solid team that works the ball for the high percentage shot. They rock ‘n roll with the pick ‘n roll. Deron Williams gets even better. Adding Brevin Knight helps a bit. You might say that Sloan is getting maximum return out of his talent. Have they reached their ceiling? Will 7’ draft choice Kostas Koufas get PT? They have 2 big problems to solve to be better this season. 1) Learn to play better on the road 2) Carlos Boozer must play better in the play-offs.
Portland 48-34 (LY= 41-41)
Greg Oden is the difference. Everybody’s favorite team to jump up this year. Only another Oden injury should stop their march to legitimacy. They are young and talented. Oden with Aldridge and Pyzbilla backing up, they are solid up front. Point guard is a question mark. Steve Blake has found a way to get serious minutes with limited athleticism, but solid, unflashy play. Jerryd Bayless was impressive in summer league play and looks like he will help. Spanish star, Rudy Fernandez will come in behind Brandon Roy. Has Ike Diogu finally found a team that can appreciate his skills? Bayless, Fernandez, Outlaw, Frye/Diogu and Pryzbilla look like a talented bench.
Denver 40-42 (LY=50-32) – I used to say this team was what the Knicks hoped they would become. There are a lot of similarities. High priced, selfish talent, but.....Denver would at least win. I liked the team more before they traded Andre Miller.
Last year this team went to the line more than any other and had the biggest FT differential in the NBA, but it wasn't that they commited so many less fouls because they played great defense. Just the opposite. The unloading of Marcus Camby for nothing ($10 mil. trade exception) sends a wrong signal to an underachieving, defensively challenged team. They’ve added known defenders Dahntay Jones, Chris Anderson, and Renaldo Balkman, which seems as if they are trying to focus on defense, until you realize they gave away the league’s DPOY (one year removed). I’ve said for a while that this team has the talent on the roster. They won’t go anywhere until Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson and JR Smith play some defense. The word in Denver is that they understand this now after the sweep in last year's play-off. I expect Allen Iverson and/or good guy coach George Karl to be gone before the year is out, unless they change their ways. The team needs a shake up. If Denver achieves close to last year's record and does it with defense, the Nuggets become the shipwreck that didn't happen.
Minnesota 28-54 (LY=22-60) By far the ‘foulingest’ (new word) team at 30 FT attempts per for their opponents and a gaudy foul differential of +5.5, (+1.7 was the next closest) in the NBA last season. Still on the smallish side and too young to make any real move but they should improve. Rookie Kevin Love and Mike Miller help. If Al Jefferson and Love can make an offensive statement around the hoop, it will help open things up for 3pt shooter Mike Miller and the rest of the team. The growing process continues.
Oklahoma City 22-60 (LY=20-62) The least amount of 3 pt shots in the league last year. That won’t change too much. Seems like rookie Russell Westbrook and Earl Watson will share PG minutes, Kevin Durant will shoot away and the team will struggle again. Average but not outstanding talent everywhere except for Durant. Joe Smith and Desmond Mason bring a desperately needed veteran presence. I fear for PJ Carlesimo's job.
Next up: Southwest Division
Posted by Tom on September 14, 2008 10:16 PM
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