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May 26, 2009
Signing Glen Davis -part two
Glen Davis is good for the NBA. Of that, I am certain.
As a basketball fan, NBA fan, and Celtic fan, I am also a fan of Davis' mold breaking potential and the success he has shown thus far. (Remember, we bloggers are allowed to be fans openly.)
Glen has also been good for the Boston Celtics. It is Glen's non-conforming body type versus his skill set that muddies the waters in defining or predicting what that mold breaking potential actually is.
There are a number of ingredients that go into the pot when boiling down a nice savory reduction of Glen Davis. If you get the (not so) subtle food allusion, you get one of the concerns. Glen has had struggles with food (i.e. weight).
While some may point to other large big men of the past NBA, I haven't really heard of a good approximation to Glen Davis in NBA history. The rounder, heavier players that I can think of just didn't have Glen's mind set, agility and abilities. Those that do are substantially leaner body types.
No doubt this is not your father's NBA. Body management and conditioning has reached heights or extremes never before seen. Dwight Howard, Alonzo Mourning, Corey Maggette and others like them define the new body protypes. Some people simply have a problem with Davis' weight and shape. With a few caveats, I am not one of them.
By the way, don't suggest that Glen is fat. He will be sure to take immediate issue with that thought, as was discovered by a writer or two along the way.
There are a number of factors that go into the equation of understanding who Glen Davis is, and predicting what he will be as an NBA player. Unlike a growing segment of the NBA population, Davis does not have 'Plastic Man long' arms, nor Spiderman-like leaping ability.
That he is about 2 inches shorter than his same position counterparts is the starting point for criticism or concern. On the flip side, his girth works to his advantage in many cases, but not all. His unconventional body type, normal length arms, and lack of great leaping ability seems to have been behind the wide range of opinion among experts and fans alike, regarding our well rounded big man.
All hail Danny Ainge, the NBA's reigning nonconformist. It's true that Danny could have taken Marc Gasol, Dominic McGuire, or Ramon Sessions instead of Davis in that draft. They are the three players taken after Davis in the same draft that are NBA successful. Reality check: none of those players were projected as having more solid chances of becoming legit NBA players at that time.
But on to the issues in discussing Glen Davis:
The Bad
1) The Celtics are in luxury tax hell.
Anything they pay him will be doubled in penalties. But bear in mind that is also true for any other signings they may make. They must decide how much they are willing to pay to not go through another season depending on marginal players to support the starting five.
Doc Rivers has already put his vote in on that subject
2) Glen Davis is not a shot blocker, and rebounding has not been his forte.
As his value offensively might be more readily projected, he has certain match up problems on the other end of the floor. While generally capable and sometimes quite good defensively, he is not an intimidating post defender. At this point, quicker power forwards with an outside shot can get by him a bit more frequently than is desirable.
3) Leon Powe's injury leaves the Celtics very shorthanded at the power forward position, unless they sign Davis.
Mikki Moore is out and Brain Scalabrine is not the long term answer. Even if they have other players in mind for the position, there is no certainty that they will sign anyone they most desire. They have to make a decision on Davis before then. After this past season, it would be risky indeed to let Davis walk scot free without a replacement.
The Good
1) Roster Spot
The unique factor here is that they can re-sign Glen without using up any other signing options. Though it would be double his immediate salary cost, he is in effect a 'freebie' roster-wise. They use up no additional signing "tools" (MLE, LLE, Vet. Min.).
The decision making process will be very similar to that behind letting James Posey go. In this case, Davis is younger with more growth to come. The Celtics drafted him and put two years of grooming and development into Davis. Will the Celtics let another valuable piece leave with zero return again?
Unless the Celtic owners have decided this season taught them something and they loosen their belts, similar to Posey, they will have set a limit that they will pay for him and no more.
2) Glen is young and his game is still developing.
Some say that he is close to "plateau-ing". I say that is probably not true. There are aspects of his game and skill set that aren't close to being utilized to their best yet. Offensively, Glen can actually become more of a facilitator in an offense, and can develop moves around and toward the hoop to complement his burgeoning outside shot.
3) Glen has already done what many of his constant detractors say he would never do, develop a reliable jump shot.
He has already started to reach a level of production offensively that I thought would take another year or so. On the right team, as a starter, Glen Davis is a 15-18 point scorer.
4) Glen can become a much better rebounder. Simply by concentrating on it more.
He has already shown that he is a pretty good offensive rebounder when he wants to be. More alertness of where the opposing rebounders are and desire to improve that part of his game will bring success.
5) Glen can improve even more than he did this season defensively. There are limitations to his defensive abilities, but he can get better fundamentally. He is a wide and strong body with good footwork. His quick hands were also a surprise.
6) As a role player off the bench, he can play with higher energy for shorter minutes and without as much concern about fouls, thereby being even more productive. At times, as a starter in the playoffs, it seemed like Glen was pacing himself out there, knowing that he had to play big minutes.
The Uncertain
1) What Glen himself wants to do.
He will gets offers from other teams. I'll probably look at what teams may be most able to make an offer soon. Career-wise, Glen may actually be better off moving to a situation where he has a chance to use more of his skills and get a chance to start.
With Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins, Glen will always be a back-up forward and center. As long as the Celtics have the Big Three and Rondo, there will be little money left over for the rest of the roster.
2) If the Celtics will match.
This is still in their hands. If Davis should get a 3 year offer for $5 mil, that means $10 mil per year to the Celtics for next season. If they don't re-sign Ray Allen in two years, Davis' cost could possibly be just the face value without further tax implications.
3) What the Celtics will do with Ray Allen after next season.
The Celtics are not necessarily in luxury tax penalty in 2011 at this point, even with re-signing Rondo.
That is year 4 of the Pierce/Garnett Era. Barring critical injuries, all efforts will likely be made to remain contenders. Whether Ray Allen is extended will make a difference in what it will actually cost to sign Glen.
4) How Glen will manage his weight with a long term contract.
The last thing Glen Davis told me as the season ended was that his priority this summer was to continue to work on his body. He said that he wants to (one day) become an all star. Now he has an invite for the U.S. Team that will take up a large portion of the summer.
I understand the concerns of those worry about that issue. There have been more than a few individuals who 'took the money and ran' (or didn't run) after getting large NBA contracts.
But you don't have to have weight issues to do that (see Mark Blount, Jerome James) While a person's reaction to coming into large sum of money is always hard to gauge, when focused, Davis has played with heart and passion in the past. I see no reason why that would change.
What Makes Sense to Me
A three year deal - by the Celtics or another team. Anything less and Glen might as well take the qualifying offer and go for big money next season. Anything more and both sides have a greater chance in being disappointed long term.
Players like Rasual Butler and Amir Johnson get $10 mil. over three years. At the other end, Andres Nocioni gets get $8 mil. per. Drew Gooden got $5.6 mil., Franscisco Garcia got a 5 year deal starting at $5.8 mil.. Maybe the most relevent is undersized power forward Ryan Gomes who is getting $3.8 mil next season. Zaza Pachulia is coming off $4 mil.
What is a Reasonable Offer?
I suggest that an offer coming in for Glen at between $3.5 mil. and $4.5 mil to start would be reasonable. 3 years at $12-13 million secures Davis' future. It is possible that he is offered up to the $5.6 ar so maximum, more based on his potential as a starter and his playoff production including hitting some clutch shots. The last second game winner against Orlando probably added dollars to his offers right there.
At this point, unless the Celtics know they have a solid inside track on someone like McDyess or Rasheed Wallace, I would match all offers of three years or less, even at max. If they want to win the championship with the Big Three, they must put solid role players around them.
Davis has his deficiencies, but most of those correctable. Even more than Posey's would have been, his contract is tradeable later if things change.
The tough economy and size of the Big Three's contracts makes it a much more difficult decision. They will need a back-up point guard, swing man, and back up center as well. If rookie Bill Walker can become Pierce's back up, the other two positions are more easily financed with the MLE, LLE, or veteran minimums.
The Celtics urgency to win now with three aging stars puts pressure on the team to spend in a luxury tax situation. My guess is, except for a 4-5 year maximum ($20-25 million) offer for Davis, that they will match and keep Glen.
Posted by Tom on May 26, 2009 12:11 PM
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Comments
"The rounder, heavier players that I can think of just didn't have Glen's mind set, agility and abilities. "
We have to go way back, to that "Round Mound of Rebound," Wayne Embry, to find a player (Hall of Fame) that carried that type of girth to great success.
While Wesley Unseld (also in the Hall) had the girth and was as undersized a center as one could envision, he did have a more chiseled upper body, which, with work, Davis could approach.
Posted by: JB at May 27, 2009 6:52 AM
Compeling arguments but are we signing him because he's the best out there or because it's more convenient? If I were Danny I would take my shots at McDyess and whomever he has on radar first before going after Davis.
I like Davis and at the right price I wouldn't mind having him back. He's proven to be very servicable. But I'm afraid his agent might ask for either too much or too long a deal.
I don't question his motivation either. Unlike Blount or James, he'll continue to work hard even after he gets the extension. It's in his makeup as a person.
It's definitely going to come down to dollars and sense in the end from ownership.
Posted by: yak at May 27, 2009 12:42 PM
JB,
I thought of Unseld myself. Unseld was incredibly strong legged, a monster rebounder and an immovable object. Davis will never be as strong, but is is quicker, and can be more creative offensively.
Wayne Embry...I have to take your word on him. I actually don't remember enough about ol' Wayne.
If Glen works on the upper body, as you suggest, it would indeed help...so long as he doesn't lose his good hands, and soft shooting touch.
Dwight Howard is the poster boy for over doing the upper body to no good end.;)
thanks as always,
Tom
Posted by: Tom Halzack at May 27, 2009 2:28 PM
Thanks Yak,
I don't think Free Agents can be contacted until July 1st.
They must offer the qualifying offer first. Then they can wait to match OR offer Davis something compelling themselves.
If they can remove themselves from Tony Allen's and Gabe Pruitt's contracts, it helps in offering the MLE to McDyess or Wallace. They can still keep Davis, though it all gets expensive either way.
Moving Eddie House could be a possibility if they can get someone solid in return, IMO.
One nice thing about Davis is he can play back up center as well.
Tough decisions for the Cs.
Tom
Posted by: Tom Halzack at May 27, 2009 2:36 PM
