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May 19, 2009
Boston Celtics' Glen Davis Free Agency Options (Part one)
(Revised 5/20)
This off season Celtic forward Glen Davis will sign a new contract, possibly with a new team.
Glen Davis’ greatly improved play as the year wore on, and his solid and consistent performance throughout the playoffs makes this a question of interest for Celtic Nation.
But the Celtics are over the luxury tax threshold. Barring unforeseen moves to get below the tax threshold, signing Glen could cost the Celtics plenty. A $5 million dollar contract will cost them $10 million total with the tax.
What are the chances Glen will stay with the Celtics?
Because of the Gilbert Arenas Rule, the Celtics will get final say on whether they want to match any offers to Davis or not. After two years of grooming, the Celtics will see what offers Glen gets and must decide if it is worth it to keep Glen.
They can also consider sign-and-trade scenarios (less likely) with Glen. He would fall under Base Year Compensation rules for 6 months if he is signed for more than 20% of his last salary. He will definitely sign for more than that, meaning that only half of his new salary would count in a trade.
Let me first say that much, but not all, of the following information was authenticated by Boston Celtic management.
Here we go:
Because Glen Davis falls under two rules, the Early Bird Exception and the Gilbert Arenas Rule, here are the likely options for Glen.
1) The Celtics can tender a qualifying offer to Glen by June 30, and wait to match any counter offers from new teams. After the qualifying offer to retain matching rights, under the Early Bird Exception, they also offer either 175% of his last salary or the average player salary (MLE value), approximately $5.585 million - which ever is greater. That means the MLE amount, though it is not an MLE offer. It is an Early Bird Exception offer.
2) Any new offers from new teams must be for no more than the MLE and can be for up to 5 years in length. So he might also get an offer for less than the MLE but, let’s say for 3, 4, or 5 years.
a) The first two years may not be more than the MLE amount. The third through fifth years can be more if the new team is under the cap and deems Glen worthy of such an offer. Neither scenario seems likely so…
b) Glen may receive an offer from any new team for 1-5 years for up to $5.585 million per year (with 8% yearly raises allowed). That a new team would tender a three year contract (or more) seems quite possible.
At that point…
The Celtics can make a financially limited multi year offer (MLE plus 10% yearly raises only) or stay with an MLE valued single year qualifying offer.
The significance is that a single year offer moves Glen to full Bird Rights next year, allowing the Celtics to make an unrestricted multi year offer (up to player max) after that year.
Both Glen and the Celtics have to determine what Glen's long term value is and what is in their own best interests.
To summarize:
1) To retain their rights to Davis, Glen will get a qualifying offer (125% of previous salary) from the Celtics by June 30.
2) New teams can offer up to the average player salary (MLE amount) for up to 5 years, limited to 8% raises annually.
3) The Celtics can make their own multi year offer up to 5 years starting at $5.585 mil., but limited to 10% raises annually.
If Glen accepts a one year offer from the Celtics:
1) He qualifies for full Bird Rights the next season and no salary limits (except player max) for any new multi year contract.
He would only do this if he thinks his value will escalate substantially next year. With a fully recovered Kevin Garnet expected to return, his role will be cut back from starting to role player. It is more likely that Glen accepts some sort of multi year deal this season to gain much sought financial security that a multi year deal would guarantee him.
I’ll cover Glen’s performance this season and a projected value in part two.
Posted by Tom on May 19, 2009 1:09 PM
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Comments
Glen should strike while the iron is hot. It's hard to imagine his stock can go any higher than it is right now so I doubt if he'll take a one year deal so that he falls under the bird rights. He's not worth more than MLE anyway.
I'm on the fence whether to resign him or not for the full MLE(even though it doesn't count as our MLE). I'll have to read your article (and it better be darn persuasive) before you can convince me he's worth more than a few mil a year.
Posted by: yak at May 20, 2009 3:35 PM
LOL.
Yak, I thought you were his agent. I guess not.
Article is coming, but I might just surprise you.
T
Posted by: Tom Halzack at May 20, 2009 10:07 PM
